Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 March 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/1135Z from Region 3599 (S12W67). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 12/0616Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 12/2032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/2259Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 761 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 131 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 006/005-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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