Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 March 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/0229Z from Region 3615 (S12E48). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar,
22 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 19/1652Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 18/2244Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
18/2252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 211 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (20 Mar, 21
Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 169 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 172/175/172 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 010/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 014/010-015/018-008/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 65% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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