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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
23/0133Z from Region 3614 (N17W07). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25
Mar, 26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 23/1826Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 23/1439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 23/2012Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 955 pfu at 23/1820Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 127 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (24 Mar), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (25 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels
on day three (26 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day
one (24 Mar), are likely to cross threshold on day two (25 Mar) and have
a chance of crossing threshold on day three (26 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| Class M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Class X | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Proton | 99% | 70% | 50% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 209 Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 210/210/210 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 019/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 017/025-031/045-020/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 50% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 79% | 90% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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