Viewing archive of Friday, 12 April 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
12/1755Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr,
15 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 12/0116Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 395 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Apr), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (14 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three
(15 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Apr 152 Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 154/156/158 90 Day Mean 12 Apr 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 007/008-016/020-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 65% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/03/30 | X1.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/04/04 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/04/03 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (3%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2026 | 85.9 +7.7 |
| April 2026 | 128.3 +42.3 |
| Last 30 days | 97.5 +35.7 |
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