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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
23/0319Z from Region 3654 (S08E31). There are currently 15 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 23/0717Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 23/1738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/1803Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 809 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Apr), unsettled to
active levels on day two (25 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (26 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 214 Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 215/210/190 90 Day Mean 23 Apr 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr Missing/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 010/010-016/020-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 60% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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