Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 May 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X5 event observed at
11/0123Z from Region 3664 (S18W62). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high on
days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed reached a peak of 993 km/s at 11/1433Z. Total IMF reached 73 nT at
10/2305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -50 nT at
11/0048Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 116 pfu at 11/0910Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 11/0715Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 119 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at severe storm levels on day one (12 May), active to severe storm
levels on day two (13 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (14 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and
two (12 May, 13 May) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (14
May).
III. Event Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| Class M | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| Class X | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 60% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 214 Predicted 12 May-14 May 220/220/215 90 Day Mean 11 May 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 080/157 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 268/317 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 114/156-041/060-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 55% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 95% | 95% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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