Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 May 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/0804Z from Region 3685 (S13E64). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 16/0528Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 16/0611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 16/0656Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 22 pfu at 16/1115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 602 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 May, 19 May)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 May). Protons greater than
10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 207 Predicted 17 May-19 May 200/190/180 90 Day Mean 16 May 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 019/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 013/015-008/008-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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