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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/1120Z from Region 3697 (S18E35). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02
Jun, 03 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 31/1819Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 31/0208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 31/0349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (01 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (02 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (03
Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 May 179 Predicted 01 Jun-03 Jun 185/185/185 90 Day Mean 31 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 018/025-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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