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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
02/0850Z from Region 3697 (S18E07). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04
Jun, 05 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 351 km/s at 02/0727Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
02/1617Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/1934Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 180 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jun), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (04 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Jun).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 180 Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 180/185/185 90 Day Mean 02 Jun 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 006/005-012/018-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 60% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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