Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 July 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
17/0639Z from Region 3743 (S09W43). There are currently 17 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 417 km/s at 16/2230Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
16/2133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/0342Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (18 Jul, 20 Jul)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Jul). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19
Jul, 20 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 224 Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 225/225/225 90 Day Mean 17 Jul 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 007/010-008/008-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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