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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/0442Z from Region 3761 (S09W86). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 612 km/s at 26/0536Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 25/2328Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 25/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (28 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day
three (29 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 176 Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 019/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 014/018-007/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 25% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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