Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/1528Z from Region 3824 (S04W26). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (16 Sep) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 15/0323Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 14/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
15/1548Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 15/1455Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1692 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (16 Sep), quiet to
major storm levels on day two (17 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (18 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (16 Sep), have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day
two (17 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three
(18 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| Class M | 55% | 45% | 40% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 173 Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 022/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 017/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 045/070-019/028-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 90% | 80% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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