Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 October 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Oct 01 1302 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Oct 2024	220	008
02 Oct 2024	221	012
03 Oct 2024	219	016

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and a M-class flare. The strongest flare was GOES M7.7 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3842 which peaked at 23:59 UTC on Sep 30. During the flare, the source region (AR 3842) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. NOAA AR 3842 is the most complex region on the disk (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, possibly with few M-class flares and a small chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed on SOHO/LASCO coronograph images starting around 16:18 UTC on Sep 30, on SW limb. This CME has an angular width of about 90 deg. With the bulk of the mass going strongly towards SW, this CME will miss the Earth. A glancing blow related to CME shock may be possible, but with a very low probability. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were still under the influence of high speed streams (HSSs) from the negative polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Sep 26. The solar wind speed ranged between 370 km/s to 530 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -7 and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 1 nT and 8 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a transition to slow solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K_BEL 1 to 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 205, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	172
10cm solar flux	214
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	165 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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