Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/0851Z from Region 3842 (S13W76). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(11 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 545 km/s at 07/2303Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 08/0506Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 08/0233Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 08/0445Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Oct), quiet levels on day
two (10 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (11 Oct).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (09 Oct) and have
a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Proton | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 225 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 260/260/250 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 033/053 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 033/057 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 008/010-006/005-010/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 15% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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