Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
09/2312Z from Region 3842 (S13W90). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (11 Oct, 12 Oct)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(13 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 833 km/s at 10/1616Z. Total IMF
reached 39 nT at 10/1624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-29 nT at 10/1607Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1811 pfu at 10/1515Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 937 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at minor storm to severe storm levels on day one (11 Oct), active
to minor storm levels on day two (12 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on day three (13 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days
one and two (11 Oct, 12 Oct) and are expected to cross threshold on day
three (13 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 70% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 80% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 216 Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 215/215/215 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 015/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 044/081 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 074/122-030/042-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 35% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 95% | 75% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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