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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 19 1825 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
18/1938Z from Region 3854 (S10W71). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 18/1721Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 18/1708Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
18/1530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1,180 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20
Oct, 21 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 165 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 165/160/165 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 012/015-012/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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