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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
22/1211Z from Region 3867 (S15E18). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (23 Oct) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(24 Oct, 25 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 341 km/s at 22/1029Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 22/2001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
22/1421Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 290 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Oct, 24 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (25 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 176 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 008/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/03/03 | Kp5 (G1) |
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