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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/0831Z from Region 3876 (S05W75). There are currently 15 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (03 Nov, 04 Nov)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (05 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 02/1838Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 02/1030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
02/1035Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 02/0210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 162 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (03 Nov, 04 Nov) and
quiet levels on day three (05 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (03 Nov, 04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 50% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 251 Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 250/240/230 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 009/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 012/015-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 45% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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