Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 November 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
10/1206Z from Region 3889 (S10E28). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12
Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 10/0215Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 09/2315Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 10/0005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 144 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Nov), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (12 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (13 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 231 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 210/215/215 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 024/036 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 023/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 012/015-011/010-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 30% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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