Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/1102Z from Region 3922 (S17E59). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 09/2101Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 09/2150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
10/0519Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 352 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 172 Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 012/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 010/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2025/12/08 | M1.8 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
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