Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
17/0130Z from Region 3917 (S07, L=010). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec,
20 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 701 km/s at 17/0821Z. Total IMF
reached 31 nT at 17/0839Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 17/0701Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 126 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Dec) and quiet levels on
days two and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 170 Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 170/175/190 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 200
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 023/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 013/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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