Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
21/1039Z from Region 3967 (S17E12). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 708 km/s at 21/0154Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 20/2119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/1734Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 881 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Jan), quiet levels on
day two (23 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Jan).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 225 Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 225/225/220 90 Day Mean 21 Jan 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 013/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 008/008-006/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/11/11 | X5.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/11/11 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/11/12 | Kp9- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| October 2025 | 114.6 -15.2 |
| November 2025 | 100 -14.6 |
| Last 30 days | 98.3 -35.2 |