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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
21/1215Z from Region 4000 (N17E07). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 20/2107Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 20/2200Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/1927Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 356 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24
Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 197 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 195/190/185 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 193
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 005/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 006/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/03 | X1.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/03 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/28 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| February 2026 | 133 +9 |
| Last 30 days | 120.6 +10.9 |