Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 February 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
27/1236Z from Region 3998 (S14W84). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (28 Feb,
01 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 676 km/s at 27/0418Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 26/2123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 26/2201Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to active
levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(02 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (28 Feb, 01 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 170 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 170/160/155 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 013/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 024/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 017/018-011/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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