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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Mar 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/0415Z from Region 4016 (S26E21). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 934 km/s at 06/1759Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/1730Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/1748Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 333 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (08 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (09 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
Class M45%45%45%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Mar 150
  Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar 160/165/165
  90 Day Mean        06 Mar 189

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  004/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Mar  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  005/012-008/020-015/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%40%
Minor storm01%05%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm15%35%60%

All times in UTC

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