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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Mar 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 22/2113Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/2036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/2349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 363 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Mar), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (25 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (26 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Mar 168
  Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar 170/170/165
  90 Day Mean        23 Mar 187

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  020/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Mar  021/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  015/020-022/030-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%35%
Minor storm30%35%30%
Major-severe storm15%25%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm20%15%20%
Major-severe storm70%75%70%

All times in UTC

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