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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jul 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 08/2133Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/0109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1211 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Jul, 11 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
Class M35%35%35%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jul 120
  Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul 115/112/115
  90 Day Mean        09 Jul 138

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  013/ NA
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jul  008/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  005/005-006/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%30%

All times in UTC

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