Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 August 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Aug 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 712 km/s at 09/0645Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 08/2335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 09/1154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 450 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Aug), unsettled
to active levels on day two (11 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (12 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 140 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 018/050 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 038/055 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 017/018-013/018-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/06 | M8.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 175.4 +83.6 |
| Last 30 days | 107.3 +14.6 |