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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Aug 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (23 Aug, 24 Aug)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (25
Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 778 km/s at 22/0600Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/2339Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 876 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Aug, 24 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on day three (25 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 136 Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 138/145/140 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 006/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/03/30 | X1.4 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/03/28 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/03/25 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (3%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| March 2026 | 88.4 +10.2 |
| Last 30 days | 88.4 +14.9 |
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