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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Sep 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 676 km/s at 01/2039Z. Total IMF reached 25 nT at
01/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
01/2031Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 01/1010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 414 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Sep). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (02
Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (03 Sep, 04 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 60% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 202 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 205/200/195 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 009/ 008 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 014/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 039/055-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 85% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/06 | M8.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 175.4 +83.6 |
| Last 30 days | 107.3 +14.6 |