Viewing archive of Monday, 6 October 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Oct 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (07 Oct, 08 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (09 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 652 km/s at 05/2359Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
06/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/1446Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 17944 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (07 Oct, 08
Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Oct). Protons
greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one and two (07 Oct, 08 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 133 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 017/021-015/018-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 175.4 +83.6 |
| Last 30 days | 107.3 +14.6 |