Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 December 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Dec 03 2250 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2235Z on 03 Dec 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05
Dec, 06 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has reached strong storm levels in the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 03/0529Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 03/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
03/2034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 8540 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at major to strong storm levels on day one (04 Dec), active to
major storm levels on day two (05 Dec) and active levels on day three
(06 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 200 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 205/210/210 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 025/035-015/025-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 79% | 79% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2025 | 114.6 -15.2 |
| December 2025 | 186 +71.4 |
| Last 30 days | 106.3 +12.6 |