Viewing archive of Monday, 2 February 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Feb 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very high levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04
Feb, 05 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 361 km/s at 01/2206Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 02/1106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/1059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 7292 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (03 Feb, 04 Feb) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (05 Feb). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 174 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 165/170/165 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 005/005-006/005-010/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/07/04 | X1.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/07/12 | M1.19 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/07/04 | Kp7+ (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| June 2026 | 94.4 -7.1 |
| July 2026 | 74.8 -19.6 |
| Last 30 days | 87 -20.2 |
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