Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 April 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Apr 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr,
18 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 390 km/s at 14/2317Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
15/0359Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/1425Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3248 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Apr), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (17 Apr) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (18 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 105 Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 009/008-015/020-025/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 35% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 25% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 80% | 85% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/04/24 | X2.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/05/22 | M2.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/05/16 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2026 | 79.3 -6.6 |
| May 2026 | 87.5 +8.2 |
| Last 30 days | 95.7 +3.6 |
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