Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 May 2026

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2026 May 02 1249 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 May 2026	146	010
03 May 2026	145	032
04 May 2026	143	032

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C7.4 flare (SIDC Flare 7585) peaking on May 01 at 15:29 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 847 (NOAA Active Region 4420). A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and possibly M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

Further analysis of the two faint, slow (around 250 km/s), subsequent coronal mass ejections (CMEs),which were observed in the SOHOS/LASCO C2 field of view around 12:30 UTC and 18:30 UTC on Apr 30, shows that they may not be detected at Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Coronal holes

SIDC Coronal Hole (CH) 142, which is a recurrent, negative polarity CH, has crossed the central meridian on May 02. The high speed streams from this CH may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth during May 02-05.

Solar wind

Solar wind parameters are transitioning from fast to slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 390 km/s and 560 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -5 and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field has decreased from 2 nT to 6 nT. We expect a transition to slow solar wind regime in the next 24 hours, unless the high speed streams from the negative polarity, recurrent coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 142), which crossed the central meridian during Apr 29 - May 02, arrives at Earth.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). In the next 24 hours, active to minor storm conditions (K 4 to 5) are possible if the high speed streams from the SIDC Coronal Hole 142, which crossed the central meridian during Apr 29 - May 02 (negative polarity), arrives at Earth.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. Any major eruption from the SIDC Sunspot Groups 847 and 851 (NOAA Active Regions 4420 and 4424), during the next 24 hours, could be possibly associated with a proton event.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-19 and GOES-18 satellites, remained below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at moderate level and is expected to be at normal to moderate level in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 140, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 01 May 2026

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	159 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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