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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 May 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06 May,
07 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 04/2041Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 04/1456Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 04/1506Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 723 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (05 May, 07 May)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 May).
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 138 Predicted 05 May-07 May 140/135/130 90 Day Mean 04 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 014/016-007/009-013/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/07/04 | X1.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/07/12 | M1.19 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/07/04 | Kp7+ (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| June 2026 | 94.4 -7.1 |
| July 2026 | 74.8 -19.6 |
| Last 30 days | 87 -20.2 |
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