Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 May 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 May 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May,
19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 823 km/s at 16/0336Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 15/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 15/2149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1420 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 May), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (18 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (19 May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 109 Predicted 17 May-19 May 105/106/110 90 Day Mean 16 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 022/035 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 027/038 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 014/018-016/020-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 70% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/07/04 | X1.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/07/12 | M1.19 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/07/04 | Kp7+ (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| June 2026 | 94.4 -7.1 |
| July 2026 | 74.8 -19.6 |
| Last 30 days | 87 -20.2 |
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