Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 July 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jul 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 389 km/s at 02/1157Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
02/0305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
02/1518Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 428 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on days one and two (03 Jul, 04
Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (05 Jul). Protons have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03
Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 203 Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 200/200/190 90 Day Mean 02 Jul 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 015/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 027/040-023/030-012/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 15% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/06/30 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/07/03 | M6.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/06/25 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| June 2026 | 94.4 -7.1 |
| July 2026 | 123.5 +29.1 |
| Last 30 days | 102.1 +2.9 |
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