Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 July 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jul 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (12 Jul, 13 Jul) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(14 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 11/1806 UTC. Total IMF reached
8 nT at 11/1742 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT
at 11/1857 UTC. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4619 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Jul), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (13 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (14
Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 112 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 105/105/115 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 016/024-010/010-007/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/07/04 | X1.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/07/12 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/07/04 | Kp7+ (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| June 2026 | 94.4 -7.1 |
| July 2026 | 91.7 -2.7 |
| Last 30 days | 90 -18.9 |
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