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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jul 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (14 Jul) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (15 Jul,
16 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 12/2100Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 13/1700Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/1655Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2,231 pfu at 13/1720Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 103 Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 110/115/120 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 015/018-009/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/07/04 | X1.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/07/20 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/07/04 | Kp7+ (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (1%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| June 2026 | 94.4 -7.1 |
| July 2026 | 70.7 -23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 85.6 -20.4 |
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