X1.6 CME, evolution of sunspot region 2205

Saturday, 8 November 2014 18:05 UTC

Evolution of sunspot region 2205

Sunspot region 2205 didn't change much since our last analysis a day ago. It's relatively stable with some minor decay in the central part and some new spots as well. It still has the same magnetic complexity as yesterday (Beta-Gamma-Delta) with at least three magnetic delta structures that gained size over the past 24 hours. The two central delta formations are very close to the spots of opposite polarity making it very compact and we can right away conclude that this sunspot region is capable of more strong solar flares. Although we didn't see much activity since the X1.6 solar flare from yesterday, an M-class event is very likely with a fair chance for an X-class solar flare in the next 24 hours. Should a future eruption produce a coronal mass ejection, then there will be a reasonable chance that at least a part of it will come towards Earth as this sunspot region is now rotating into a geo-effective position.

M-class flare probability for the coming 24 hours: 70% chance
X-class flare probability for the coming 24 hours: 30% chance

All the other sunspot regions on the disk are unremarkable and unlikely to produce strong solar flares. Any future solar flares will very likely be centered around sunspot region 2205.

Images: NASA SDO and ESA/NASA SOHO.