Informe actividad solar

Viendo archivo del sábado, 5 enero 2002

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jan 05 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 005 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Jan 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9773 (N13E52) produced an M1.9/1f flare at 05/1840 UTC and a number of minor C-class flares. Region 9767 (S22W03) produced only C-class flares and has remained mostly unchanged since yesterday, maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.

IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9773 and Region 9767 have the potential for M-class events.

IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was quiet with one period at unsettled conditions. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that started on 30/0245 UTC has ended at 04/2355 UTC.

IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. A weak shock from the C5/1f event on 03/0220 UTC is expected to arrive midday on day one of the period and could produce slight disturbances.

III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Jan a 08 Jan

Clase M	60%	60%	60%
Clase X	10%	10%	10%
Protón	10%	10%	10%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo

  Observado       05 Jan 212
  Previsto   06 Jan-08 Jan  210/210/205
  Media de 90 Días        05 Jan 221

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A

  Observado Afr/Ap 04 Jan  004/003
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 05 Jan  004/003
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  008/012-005/008-005/005

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Jan a 08 Jan

A. Latitudes Medias
Activo	30%	15%	15%
Tormenta Menor	10%	05%	05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa	05%	01%	01%

B. Latitudes Altas
Activo	35%	20%	20%
Tormenta Menor	15%	10%	10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa	05%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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