Viendo archivo del miércoles, 14 enero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 014 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jan 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 536 (S12, L=74),
produced a C1 flare at 14/1602 UTC. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 537 may produce C-class and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions. Activity may
increase to active to minor storm conditions on 17 January due to
increased solar wind speeds from a coronal hole moving into
geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jan a 17 Jan
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Jan 121 Previsto 15 Jan-17 Jan 125/130/135 Media de 90 Días 14 Jan 138
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jan 014/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Jan 010/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 010/010-010/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jan a 17 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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