Viendo archivo del jueves, 21 septiembre 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Sep 21 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 264 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Sep 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 910 (S09E10)
remains the only sunspot group on the visible disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on 22 September. Unsettled to active
conditions with isolated minor storm periods are possible on 23
September due to a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed
stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return for 24
September.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Sep a 24 Sep
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Sep 071 Previsto 22 Sep-24 Sep 070/070/070 Media de 90 Días 21 Sep 077
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Sep 003/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Sep 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 005/005-015/020-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Sep a 24 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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