Viendo archivo del miércoles, 20 octubre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Oct 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 293 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Oct 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 20/2034Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 20/2048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/1953Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 155 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 Oct, 22 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (23 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Oct a 23 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Oct 076 Previsto 21 Oct-23 Oct 076/076/080 Media de 90 Días 20 Oct 082
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Oct 009/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Oct 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 009/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Oct a 23 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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