Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 27 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 9090 (N14W76)
PRODUCED AN M2/SB FLARE AT 27/0410Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TENFLARE. AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 27/1711Z, LIKELY DUE TO
ACTIVITY FROM REGION 9087, BEHIND THE WEST LIMB. A FULL HALO WAS
EVIDENT IN SOHO/LASCO IMAGERY BEGINNING AT 1954Z. REGIONS 9090 AND
9097 (N09W41) BOTH APPEAR TO BE DECAYING IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY.
NEW REGIONS 9104 (S23E65), 9105 (N13E81), AND 9106 (S10W15) WERE
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGHER LATITUDES EARLY IN THE DAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MINOR STORM PERIODS
AT HIGHER LATITUDES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS INCREASED ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THE CME OBSERVED ON 25 JULY. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 28 JUL to 30 JUL
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 JUL 162 Predicted 28 JUL-30 JUL 160/155/155 90 Day Mean 27 JUL 190
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JUL 016/020 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUL 007/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUL-30 JUL 020/030-020/025-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 JUL to 30 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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