Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 February 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 9330 (N25E54) produced a C7/Sf flare at 01/0712 UTC and two lesser C-class events during the period. This region remains the largest and most active on the visible disk. Two new regions were numbered today: 9333 (N24W10) and 9334 (N12E78). Region 9333 developed with rapid growth but produced no significant activity. Region 9334 rotated onto the visible disk today and produced some subfaint optical flares, but without any notable x-ray enhancements. Other active regions on the visible disk were mostly stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the next three days. Region 9330 is a potential source for isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled throughout the day, in the wake of the geomagnetic storm activity of January 31. A trend toward mostly quiet conditions has been evident for the latter half of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet with isolated unsettled periods for the next three days, barring the occurrence of an earth-directed CME.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Feb 161
  Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb  165/165/170
  90 Day Mean        01 Feb 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  011/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Feb  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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