Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. An 11 degree
filament (S17W05) disappeared between 28/1146-1323 UTC. A
corresponding CME was observed by the LASCO imagery. Two new
regions were numbered today as Region 9364 (S10W16) and 9365
(S08E37).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled the next two days of the forecast.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three as a
result of today's CME.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 132 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 008/008-005/005-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 06% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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