Viewing archive of Friday, 8 February 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 08 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (09 Feb). Activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on day 2 (10 Feb)
due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (11 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 071 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 010/012-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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