Viewing archive of Friday, 15 August 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Aug 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (16-18 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (16 August). An increase to quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods is expected on days two and
three (17-18 August) in response to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 065 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 005/005-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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